As of 21 February 2022, the security situation in southeastern Ukraine continues to deteriorate amid fears of an imminent Russian invasion of the country. Incidents of shelling along the line of contact in the southeastern Donbass region, which comprises the separatist areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, have notably intensified since 17 February. Russia-backed separatist leaders of Donetsk and Luhansk continue to accuse the Ukrainian military of shelling rebel positions in the Donbass region and carrying out or attempting to carry out terrorist attacks. The leaders of the two separatist governments have also requested that Russian President Vladimir Putin recognize their breakaway regions and provide Russian military aid. In another new escalation of rhetoric, the Russian military claimed on 21 February that it destroyed two Ukrainian armored vehicles and killed five alleged Ukrainian saboteurs attempting to cross into the Rostov region of Russia.
Over the weekend of 19-20 February, the separatist leaders of Donetsk and Luhansk declared a general mobilization in response to alleged threats of aggression from the Ukrainian armed forces. The decree encourages all men in the separatist regions to take up arms. On 18 February all women and children from the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk were ordered to evacuate to the bordering Russian region of Rostov. The order was followed by explosions and shelling in the territory, which Russia-backed separatists claim were carried out by the Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian officials accuse Russia-backed separatists of staging these explosions as part of a “false flag” operation in an effort to create pretext for the Russian military actions against Ukraine.
Analyst Comment: Reports of Ukrainian shelling of separatist positions, attempted assassinations or attempted terrorist attacks continue to originate from Russia-backed separatist leadership in southeastern Ukraine and Russian officials as well as Russia-backed media outlets. Such reports do not offer credible evidence, and many utilize video footage or images that are not what they claim to be or are from past events in other locations. The escalating Russian rhetoric and the claims of the Ukrainian military offensive in the Donbass region appear to be an effort to cause panic in Ukraine and serve as justification for probable Russian military actions against the country.
