The political landscape in Pakistan in May 2025 is marked by significant recent events and ongoing tensions, particularly in its relationship with neighbouring India.

  • Following a terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22, 2025, which resulted in civilian casualties, tensions between India and Pakistan escalated dramatically. India launched missile strikes within Pakistani territory on May 7, codenamed “Operation Sindoor,” targeting alleged militant infrastructure. Pakistan retaliated on May 10 with “Operation Bunyan-un-Marsoos,” claiming to target Indian military bases. After three days of intense conflict involving missile and drone strikes, a ceasefire was agreed upon on May 10, mediated by the United States and other countries. Military talks between the two nations took place on May 12 to uphold the ceasefire and explore de-escalation.
  • Despite the ceasefire, the situation remains precarious. Both sides have accused each other of violating the agreement. Punitive non-military actions, such as the suspension of visa services, closure of airspace, a ban on bilateral trade, and the closure of the Attari-Wagah border crossing, remain in place. Critically, India has reportedly suspended the Indus Waters Treaty. Experts suggest that without meaningful political dialogue, renewed hostilities are likely. The recent conflict may have partially bolstered the image of the Pakistani military within the country. The term of the current army chief, Asim Munir, who is seen as having a hardline Islamist stance, has been extended, potentially reducing the prospects for near-term reconciliation with India.
  • Pakistan has a multi-party system, but the military wields considerable influence over government formation and policies. The ouster of former Prime Minister Imran Khan in 2022 and subsequent legal challenges against him have been significant factors in the political climate. The authorities have often been accused of imposing selective restrictions on civil liberties and intimidating the media.

Pakistan’s economy in 2025 is showing signs of stabilisation and potential recovery, although significant challenges remain.

  • Both the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the World Bank project positive GDP growth for Pakistan in the fiscal year ending June 2025. The ADB forecasts a 2.5% growth, while the World Bank anticipates 2.7% growth, up from 2.5% in the previous fiscal year. Growth is expected to be supported by recovering private consumption and investment due to subdued inflation, lower interest rates, and improving business confidence. The ADB projects a further increase to 3.0% in FY2026.
  • This improved outlook is attributed to the effects of tight macroeconomic policies and progress in economic reforms, supported by the IMF Extended Fund Facility arrangement initiated in October 2024. Continued adherence to this program is crucial for building resilience and enabling sustainable growth. Reforms in tax policy and energy sector viability have contributed to improved macroeconomic stability.
  • Despite the positive projections, the economic outlook remains fragile. High debt levels, policy and global trade uncertainties, and vulnerability to climatic shocks pose significant risks. Achieving sustainable and inclusive growth, along with poverty reduction and job creation amidst high population growth, remains a key challenge. Structural reforms are essential, particularly in areas such as tax system efficiency, exchange rate management, export promotion through reduced import tariffs, and improving the business environment.
  • The World Bank emphasises the importance of developing Pakistan’s digital infrastructure and enabling environment for the digital economy to unlock opportunities for private capital mobilisation and improve service delivery. Addressing the digital divide through legal and regulatory reforms, increased private investment, and the development of secure digital identification and payment platforms is crucial.

Pakistan continues to grapple with several significant social issues in 2025.

  • Reports indicate a concerning clampdown on freedom of expression and association, particularly surrounding the February elections. The government has been accused of cracking down on opposition parties and the media, with detentions of activists and intimidation of journalists. A climate of fear among journalists and civil society groups has led to self-censorship. There have been reports of journalists being killed and facing enforced disappearances. New defamation laws and the application of sedition laws have been criticised as threats to media freedom.
  • The enforcement of blasphemy laws remains a critical concern, often leading to violence against religious minorities and arbitrary arrests. Mob violence against individuals accused of blasphemy has resulted in fatalities, with a lack of accountability for perpetrators. The Ahmadiyya religious community continues to be a target of prosecutions under blasphemy laws and discriminatory legislation.
  • While there was a period of relative macroeconomic stability in 2024, Pakistan also faced a resurgence of terrorism. Groups like the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) pose significant security challenges, with attacks contributing to tensions with neighbouring countries like China and Afghanistan. Sectarian violence also remains a concern.
  • Significant disparities in connectivity quality across provinces and the high cost of fixed broadband contribute to a digital divide, hindering e-business and innovation.

Pakistan’s international relations in 2025 are heavily influenced by its complex relationship with India and its strategic partnerships.

  • As detailed in the political situation, relations with India have recently deteriorated significantly due to the conflict in May 2025. Despite the current ceasefire, the underlying issues, particularly the dispute over Kashmir, remain unresolved. The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty adds another layer of complexity to the bilateral relationship. While the US Secretary of State mentioned potential talks on a broad set of issues, the prospects for meaningful dialogue remain uncertain.
  • China remains a key strategic and economic partner for Pakistan, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). However, attacks by groups like the BLA on Chinese targets have caused strains in this relationship.
  • Cross-border militant activities have contributed to tensions with Afghanistan. In late 2023, Pakistan undertook a large-scale relocation of Afghan residents, citing security concerns.
  • The military’s significant influence in domestic politics also shapes Pakistan’s foreign policy, particularly concerning India. The extension of the army chief’s term underscores the military’s continued prominence in the country’s affairs.
  • Pakistan continues to engage with international financial institutions like the IMF, ADB, and World Bank to address its economic challenges. The country also participates in regional and international forums.

In conclusion, Pakistan in May 2025 is navigating a complex landscape marked by recent military conflict and a fragile ceasefire with India, a slowly recovering yet still vulnerable economy requiring sustained reforms, and persistent social issues related to freedom of expression, religious tolerance, and security. Its international relations are primarily shaped by its delicate balance with India and its strategic alliance with China.

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