Russia Country Report — 2025 Overview

1. Russia Demographics & Population

• Estimated population stands at 146.0 million as of January 1, 2025 (excluding occupied Crimea regions)
• The natural growth is negative: total fertility is just 1.41 births per woman in 2024, far below replacement level
• Russia faces a severe demographic crisis with an aging population (median age ~41.9) and projected labour shortage of 11 million by 2030
• Life expectancy in 2023 is ~73 years overall (68 for males, 79 for females)

2. Economy & Growth

• Economic expansion is cooling sharply: 4.3% growth in 2024, but forecasts vary:
  • World Bank expects +1.4% in 2025, slowing to 1.2% in 2026–27
  • IMF projects a more pessimistic 0.9% GDP growth in 2025, easing to ~1% in 2026 due to weakening consumption and industrial output
• The wartime economic surge, driven by military and defense sector spending, has peaked and is decelerating
• Defense spending is projected at 6.3% of GDP in 2025 and is likely to remain elevated due to entrenched institutional interests
• Despite rising wages earlier, wage growth slowed from ~4.2% in late 2024 to ~2.2% by April 2025
• Inflation remains persistently high (official estimates > 10%, real inflation likely significantly higher), with negative impacts on living costs and savings
• The sovereign National Wealth Fund—initially > $110 billion—has shrunk to just $30 billion by mid‑2025
• Poverty remains relatively low (~1.6% below US$6.85/day), though about 15% of citizens remain vulnerable to economic shocks
• Business environment has worsened: sanctions, tech isolation and policy favouring state-linked actors limit private investment and competitiveness

3. Politics & Governance

• Vladimir Putin began his fifth presidential term in May 2024, after securing ~88% of the vote in a widely criticised election
• The constitutional reform allows him to remain in office until at least 2036 through orchestrated political centralisation and election control

4. Security & Military

• Russia maintains the world’s largest nuclear arsenal: around 5,459 warheads, with approximately 1,718 deployed strategic weapons as of 2025.
• Military mobilisation is central to its economy, crowding out civilian sectors and reinforcing a militarised state structure
• Analysts warn Russia may exhaust its capacity to sustain major combat operations beyond 2026 due to fiscal and human resource constraints

5. Environment & Climate

• Russia is experiencing high Arctic warming (2.5× global average), causing permafrost thawing and infrastructure damage
• Although it met a historical 30% emissions reduction compared to 1990, the result stems from industrial collapse rather than deliberate climate policy; environmental action remains minimal

6. Internet & Information Control

• From May to June 2025, Russia has undergone hundreds of regional internet shutdowns, including blocking Telegram and WhatsApp under the justification of drone-security concerns
• Digital censorship continues to expand, restricting access to foreign platforms and consolidating state control over online information

Summary & Strategic Outlook

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